Better Decisions Under Uncertainty
Stop pretending to predict the future, start planning across plausible versions of it. Three-scenario thinking, personal risk ranking, AI literacy, and the discipline of asymmetric bets.
11 lessons ~9 hoursSelf-paced
Who this is for
Adults making medium-horizon decisions (career, location, business, family) in a noisy, fast-moving environment. People tired of doomer media and equally tired of cheerful certainty.
The sequence
7-day quickstart
- Day 1 — Pick the decision that's been costing you sleep. Run the clarity matrix.
- Day 2 — Read the AI risk literacy preview lesson.
- Day 3 — Apply the AI claim evaluation worksheet to one confident piece of news.
- Day 4 — Rank your top 10 personal risks; pick three to invest against.
- Day 5 — Write your three-scenario view of the next three years (pessimistic / base / optimistic).
- Day 6 — Identify two cost-asymmetric bets that work across all three scenarios.
- Day 7 — Place one of the two bets this week.
30-day plan
Week 1
Frameworks
- Complete the AI risk literacy micro-course.
- Use the decision clarity matrix on three current decisions.
- Apply the AI claim evaluation worksheet to three claims you encounter.
Week 2
Risks
- Run the personal risk ranking; pick top three.
- Run the AI career exposure audit.
- Identify which of your current bets are concentrated in one scenario.
Week 3
Bets
- Write your three-scenario view of the next 3-7 years.
- Identify three robust moves that work across scenarios.
- Place one concrete bet this quarter.
Week 4
Information diet
- Complete the geopolitics-and-emerging-tech micro-course.
- Cut one news / social source that's anxious without being informative.
- Schedule a six-month review of your scenario thinking.
Completion checklist
- Clarity matrix used on at least three real decisions.
- AI claim evaluation worksheet used on three claims.
- Personal risk ranking done; top three risks have a concrete action.
- Three-scenario plan written and dated.
- At least one concrete bet placed.