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AI claim evaluation worksheet

A reusable seven-question checklist for any confident claim about AI, automation, or the future. Use it when something on your feed looks important enough to change your behaviour.

Related micro-course

When to use this

  • When you're reading a confident AI claim (capability, risk, deployment) and trying to decide whether to act on it.
  • Before sharing or reposting an AI-related article.
  • When the same claim is bouncing around your feeds and you want a structured way to interrogate it.

How to complete it

  • Run the seven questions in order — they're sequenced for a reason.
  • Answer based on the source's content, not your prior view of the source.
  • Mark the questions you can't yet answer. They're often the most important ones.

Common mistakes

  • Treating the framework as a confirmation-check for a view you already hold.
  • Skipping the source-credibility question when the claim feels intuitively right.
  • Rejecting the whole claim because one question scored badly. A single weak answer isn't disqualifying.

AI claim evaluation worksheet

Vinthony Academy · vinthony.com

The claim, in one sentence.

Source.

1. Who is making the claim?

Researcher, vendor, journalist, anonymous account. Each has different incentives.

2. What would have to be true for the claim?

List the load-bearing assumptions. Often one is doing all the work.

3. What is the timescale?

“Soon” covers a six-month-to-twenty-year range. Pin it down before evaluating.

4. What does the strongest critic say?

Find a serious dissenting view. If you can't articulate one, you don't understand the claim yet.

5. What evidence would change my mind?

If nothing would change your mind, you're holding a belief, not assessing a claim.

6. What's the cost if I'm wrong?

Symmetric or asymmetric? Some claims are cheap to act on either way; others bet your career.

7. Could a reasonable person read this and ignore it?

Yes / No. If yes, what would they do instead?

My decision.

Will I act on this claim? If yes, what specifically? If no, when will I revisit?