AI claim evaluation worksheet

1. Who is making the claim?

Researcher, vendor, journalist, anonymous account. Each has different incentives.

2. What would have to be true for the claim?

List the load-bearing assumptions. Often one is doing all the work.

3. What is the timescale?

“Soon” covers a six-month-to-twenty-year range. Pin it down before evaluating.

4. What does the strongest critic say?

Find a serious dissenting view. If you can't articulate one, you don't understand the claim yet.

5. What evidence would change my mind?

If nothing would change your mind, you're holding a belief, not assessing a claim.

6. What's the cost if I'm wrong?

Symmetric or asymmetric? Some claims are cheap to act on either way; others bet your career.

7. Could a reasonable person read this and ignore it?

Yes / No. If yes, what would they do instead?